By TODD HORNE, Executive Editor
Florida at No. 3 LSU – SEC Opener | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge | Saturday Night Kickoff | ESPN
Records: Florida 1-1 (0-0 SEC), LSU 2-0 (0-0 SEC)
Series: All-time tied 34-34-3; Florida hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 2016
LSU’s Game Plan to Beat Florida
With the Tigers at 2-0 (wins over Clemson 17-10 and Louisiana Tech 23-7) and heavy 7.5-9.5 point favorites against a 1-1 Florida squad reeling from an 18-16 home upset to USF, LSU’s blueprint for this SEC opener (6:30 PM CT, ABC, Death Valley) emphasizes coordinator Blake Baker’s aggressive defense to exploit Florida’s O-line woes (18 TFLs allowed) and QB DJ Lagway (74.5% completion, 6.9 YPA), while QB Garrett Nussmeier builds on his efficient start (68.4% completion, 4 big-time throws). Coach Brian Kelly’s “1-0” focus and emphasis on execution guide the plan.
LSU Defensive Strategy: Pressure Up Front, Clamp the Run
LSU’s defense has been dominant at 3.8 yards per play allowed, including 1.6 YPC vs. Clemson. Baker’s scheme dials up blitzes to hit Lagway’s 18.5% pressure rate, while stacking against Florida’s ground attack led by RB Jadan Baugh (7.3 YPC).
– Edge Rush Rotation:** Patrick Payton (Florida State transfer, 4.5 sacks in ’24) heads the group alongside Gabe Reliford with Jack Pyburn and Jimari Butler rotating for fresh legs. Stunts and simulated pressures target 4+ sacks, like the 4 vs. Louisiana Tech.
– **Run Stuffing Core:** Linebackers Harold Perkins (hybrid edge/LB Star) and Whit Weeks anchor the box, with safeties Temarcus Cooley and AJ Hayley in support. Ranked 36th vs. the rush, LSU aims to limit Baugh under 4.0 YPC, forcing 3rd-and-longs to mimic the Clemson shutdown.
– **Secondary Coverage Mix:** Five-star freshman CB DJ Pickett, PJ Woodland and AJ Haulcy (Houston transfer) blend man and Cover 3 to shadow Florida’s WRs like Eugene Wilson and Vernell Brown. Mansoor Delane (shutdown corner) handles deep threats; zero 20+ yard plays is the target, leveraging Lagway’s one turnover-worthy throw.
Depth from DTs Dominick McKinley and Bernard Gooden keeps the front fresh against Florida’s interior vulnerabilities.
LSU Offensive Strategy: Nussmeier’s Rhythm Passes, Balanced Ground Attack
LSU’s offense (5.9 YPA) has managed games well but held back; Kelly plans more vertical looks vs. Florida’s 63rd-ranked secondary, using the run to create play-action despite OL run-blocking issues (119th nationally).
– **Passing Emphasis:** Nussmeier hits slot WRs Aaron Anderson and Barion Brown (Kentucky transfer, 4.4 speed) on crossers and overs, with Nic Anderson (Oklahoma transfer) and Chris Hilton, Jr. deep. RPOs sustain drives; target 250+ yards, echoing his turnover-free Clemson poise.
– **Run Committee:** RBs Caden Durham (3.4 YPC) and Kaleb Jackson and freshman Harlem Berry grind gap/power sets to exhaust Florida’s front (10th vs. rush but exploitable inside). With center Braelin Moore (ankle) officially questionable you may see DJ Chester slide in at center some (although Kelly says Moore is a full-go); if Chester is forced to play, expect simplified protections to counter Nussmeier’s 19.1% pressure rate.
– **Ball Security First:** Florida’s DBs force turnovers, so checkdowns and quick decisions to slots/TEs like Bauer Sharp are key. The OL prioritizes slides vs. Florida’s 75th-ranked pass rush, having learned a lesson after being pressured 22 times in last season’s upset loss in Gainesville and watching that tape over and over this week. Caleb Banks does return from injury for Florida and he ripped LSU in last season’s upset loss so keep an eye on how LSU holds off pressure specifically from Banks.
LSU Special Teams and Intangibles: Zavion Thomas’ punt return game for LSU should play an important role. Expect Thomas to have a breakout return even though Florida’s new punter senior Tommy Doman’s allowed virtually no returns so far this season.
– **Death Valley Boost:** LSU’s 3-1 vs. Florida last four, plus night-game energy, tilts momentum. Kelly’s “nameless, faceless” prep blocks distractions; Nussmeier eyes it as a huge game, Gators’ desperation post-USF meets LSU’s edge.
Prediction
LSU pulls away 27-16, covering — LSU defense stalls Florida in FG range, Nussmeier’s arm surges late. This 3-0 start readies LSU for first SEC road trip at Ole Miss after playing Southeastern at home next week. LSU has not been 4-0 since 2019.
OVERVIEW
Saturday night’s sellout in Death Valley will set the tone for both teams’ conference ambitions. Brian Kelly’s Tigers arrive riding a Top 3 ranking and a perfect 2-0 start that includes a come-from-behind win over Clemson and a steady 23-7 victory against Louisiana Tech. For Billy Napier’s Gators, a stunning Week 2 upset loss at home to South Florida has raised the stakes: an upset of a top-three opponent on the road would buy Napier fresh confidence, while a defeat could amplify calls for change.
KEY OFFENSIVE MATCHUPS
• Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (5th-year senior | 68% comp., 469 yds, 3 TDs) vs. Florida’s secondary – Nussmeier excelled against the Gators a year ago (260 yds, 27-of-47). He’ll need to beat usually tight coverage from cornerback Devin Moore and Cormani McClain.
• LSU Rush Game vs. Florida Front Seven – Caden Durham (soph. RB) heads an LSU ground attack that averaged 4.5 ypc in Weeks 1–2, although that average is bolstered by two long rushes vs La. Tech. Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson must push the line of scrimmage for Florida to maintain balance.
• LSU Receiving Corps vs. UF Secondary Depth – Aaron Anderson (172 yds) and Barion Brown (13 catches, 119 yds) will test Florida’s nickel packages, particularly in third-and-long. Look for LSU to target mismatches on the boundary.
KEY DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
• Florida Defensive Line vs. LSU Offensive Line – The Gators welcome back Caleb Banks (DT), a former high-round NFL prospect who provides interior push. Brendan Bett will look to rebound after an unsportsmanlike ejection last week. Bett spit on a USF player and was ejected, but Napier chose not to suspend Bett vs LSU. Personal apologies and contrition were deemed punishment enough.
• LSU Linebackers vs. UF Play-Action Attack – West Weeks (13 tackles) and Whit Weeks patrol the box, while Harold Perkins Jr. leads the Tigers in TFLs. Florida must dictate tempo with Lagway play-action to keep these downhill hitters honest.
• Secondary Showdown – Big Key: Pickett, Woodland and Cooley (S) must limit big-play passes, 10 or more yards downfield. Expect Lagway to throw away from Delane as often as possible. Florida’s DJ Lagway (soph.) will need precision on quick-game throws to complement the run.
INJURY/AVAILABILITY WATCH
• LSU TE Trey’Dez Green (MCL sprain) is day-to-day after exiting vs. La. Tech. Bauer Sharp has six catches this year.
• Florida returns DT Caleb Banks from foot surgery but loses WR Dallas Wilson (foot) and LT Fletcher Westphal (wrist). DJ Lagway is listed as full practice participant but remains under physical scrutiny.
X-FACTORS
Florida: Discipline—penalty trouble doomed them vs. USF (11 flags). A cleaner performance in Death Valley could keep them within striking distance. This is where the crowd could definitely help LSU, causing havoc for Florida offensively. Lagway has never played in Tiger Stadium. Huge factor.
LSU: Explosive plays—the Tigers have yet to hit a high gear offensively. A big home crowd could lift La. Kelly’s club out of its funk.
WHAT TO WATCH
• Third-Down Efficiency – Florida’s 1-for-4 on fourth-down attempts suggests Napier may gamble more this week.
• Turnover Margin – In hostile environments, turnovers swing momentum. LSU is plus-1 on giveaways; Florida must avoid unforced errors.
• Red-Zone Execution – LSU is 5-for-5 inside the 20; Florida cracked at the goal line vs. USF.
TRENDS & HISTORY
• Night Games at LSU – Florida has dropped three straight under the lights in Tiger Stadium, surrendering over 700 yards in the most recent trip (2023).
• Series Momentum – An unranked Florida rallied to upset LSU last November, sparking a late-season Gator surge.
PREDICTION OUTLOOK
Florida needs a turnaround performance from DJ Lagway and a physical ground game to keep this one close. Expect Napier to run right at the middle of LSU’s defense. Who wins that battle will be key.
LSU must shake off offensive rust and capitalize early to force UF into mistakes. If the Tigers protect the football and find an explosive play or two, their home-field advantage will prove decisive. But if Florida plays disciplined complementary football—hustles for every yard, avoids penalties and snags a turnover or two—it could be a long night for the heavily favored Tigers.
Final Line: LSU by 7.5 (per ESPN spread)
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