Remember All Those Scenarios LSU Needed? Got ‘Em All, But 1 – SEC This Week

Had LSU beaten Florida two weeks ago, it could be playing to reach the SEC Championship Game Saturday night against Oklahoma. (LSU photo).

GLENN GUILBEAU, Tiger Rag Editor

LSU could be a win away from playing in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game a week from Saturday in Atlanta, had it been able to beat Florida two weeks ago.

Every scenario LSU (7-4, 4-3 SEC) needed actually happened, except the big one. The Tigers lost, 27-16, at Florida (6-4, 4-4 SEC) on Nov. 16. Georgia beat Tennessee that day, and Alabama lost at Oklahoma last Saturday in resounding fashion, 24-3, to the lowly Sooners (6-5, 2-5 SEC). Those were the two biggies LSU needed to happen outside of its own games.

The Tigers also needed Texas A&M to get a second SEC loss, which could happen Saturday when SEC-leading No. 3 Texas (10-1, 6-1 SEC) will be in College Station. But the Aggies went ahead and took care of business a week early by losing, 43-41, in four overtimes last Saturday at measly Auburn (5-6, 2-5 SEC) to fall to 8-3 and 5-2.

LSU needed a logjam of teams tied at 6-2 in the SEC, and it would have advanced to Atlanta by virtue of the fourth SEC tiebreaker, which is highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams. LSU had that.

Yes, all LSU would need was a win over an average Oklahoma on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium, and it would be preparing to play border foe Texas on Dec. 7 (3 p.m., ABC). And LSU is a touchdown favorite to beat the Sooners, who have a weak pass defense that Garrett Nussmeier should be able to shred. It only did well against Alabama last week, because Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe has trouble throwing the ball.

LSU likely will beat Oklahoma, but, alas, Sunbelt Billy the Kid Napier ruined it all. A former ULL coach, of all people, kept the Tigers out of the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

Had LSU defeated Florida, then Oklahoma, it would have gone to Atlanta at 9-3 and 6-2. And even with a loss to Georgia, it likely still would have made the 12-team playoff as the CFP committee is giving extra credit now to teams that reach league championship games and lose more so than in the past. At least, that’s what they’re saying. In the past, some teams that lost the SEC title game drew lesser bowls than teams that did not reach the title game, but had a better record.

Meanwhile, the LSU Nation will be at one of those lesser bowls – maybe the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME SCENARIOS

No. 7 Georgia (9-2, 6-2 SEC) has already clinched a spot in Atlanta for the SEC title game – even if it loses to Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC) on Friday (6:30 p.m., ABC).

Georgia’s opponent will be Texas if the Longhorns can win at Texas A&M on Saturday night (6:30 p.m., ABC). Kyle Field will be rocking even more than usual, though, as this will be the first meeting between the two hate rivals since 2011 – the Aggies’ last year in the Big 12 with Texas before joining the SEC. And, more importantly, it will be the most significant Texas-Texas A&M game in history as far as what it means toward the postseason for either winner.

If the 5.5-point underdog Aggies pull the upset, Texas A&M will play in its first SEC Championship Gamer after 12 seasons in the league. If Texas wins, it advances in just its first season.

If No. 8 Tennessee (9-2, 5-2 SEC) beats Vanderbilt (6-5, 3-4 SEC) on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC), it will finish 6-2 in the league and in a three-way tie with Texas and Texas A&M for the spot opposite Georgia in the title game. But it would lose the tiebreakers, so Tennessee has no chance of reaching Atlanta. It can thank its loss to five-loss Arkansas on Oct. 5. Arkansas is also below .500 in the SEC at 3-4. The Vols could still reach the CFP, though, with a better record at 10-2 and 6-2 than the SEC title game loser, depending on what team that is.

All in all, it will be a blast for the second straight weekend watching the SEC beat itself up and out of the playoffs. Other than Texas, if it beats A&M, there is no great team in the league, and a bunch of average ones. The league picked the first year of the 12-team playoff to be average. So, it’s time to stop – for this year at least – saying the SEC is the Saturday NFL. Not even close this year.

Look at Alabama (8-3, 4-3 SEC), which should not make the playoff. It has two losses to five-loss teams that are below .500 in the SEC – Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Ole Miss (8-3, 4-3 SEC), meanwhile, has two losses to teams with a combined 12 losses – 4-7 Kentucky and 6-5 Florida, who combined are below .500 in the league at 5-11. Kentucky is an embarrassing 1-7 in the SEC with its only win over Ole Miss, and that one was in Oxford. Throw in LSU, and Ole Mediocre’s three SEC losses are to teams with 16 losses and a 9-14 mark in the league.

WEEKEND SCHEDULE

FRIDAY

Mississippi State at No. 14 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m., ABC.

Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC) at No. 7 Georgia, 6:30 p.m., ABC.

SATURDAY

No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m., ABC.

Louisville (7-4, 5-3 ACC) at Kentucky, 11 a.m., SEC Network.

No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson (9-2, 7-1 ACC), 11 a.m., ESPN.

Auburn at No. 13 Alabama, 2:30 p.m., ABC.

Arkansas at No. 21 Missouri, 2:30 p.m., SEC Network.

Oklahoma at LSU, 6 p.m., ESPN.

Florida at Florida State (2-9, 1-7 ACC), 6 p.m., ESPN2.

No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m., ABC.

THE GUILBEAU POLL

1. Texas (10-1, 6-1 SEC)

2. Georgia (9-2, 6-2)

3. Tennessee (9-2, 5-2)

4. Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2)

5. Ole Miss (8-3, 4-3)

6. Alabama (8-3, 4-3)

7. South Carolina (8-3, 5-3)

8. Missouri (8-3, 4-3)

9. Florida (6-5, 4-4)

10. LSU (7-4, 4-3)

11. Oklahoma (6-5, 2-5)

12. Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-4)

13. Arkansas (6-5, 3-4)

14. Auburn (5-6, 2-5)

15. Kentucky (4-7, 1-7)

16. Mississippi State (2-9, 0-7)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Sometimes, in my career, I’ve always looked at if there’s a lot of mistakes, there might be too much information. You might be doing a little bit too much. So, we simplified some things.”

-LSU coach Brian Kelly on one of his team’s most efficient games of the season – a 24-17 win over Vanderbilt last Saturday.

BS QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Vanderbilt has played five one-score games in SEC play and played the likes of Alabama, Texas and LSU all close.”

-Nashville Tennessean.

-Uh, Vanderbilt not only played Alabama “close.” It beat Alabama.

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