HORNE: Why I Like LSU Against Alabama — And What Could Change That
I expect LSU to beat Alabama on Saturday.
There is no need to tiptoe into the prediction.
The strongest reason is what LSU can do to Alabama sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell. The next is what Sam Leavitt can do if the Tigers give him enough room to work.
After comparing the season-to-date Pro Football Focus grades for the players likely to face one another, I see specific opportunities for LSU’s pass rush and its best receivers. I also see two places Alabama should circle before it leaves Tuscaloosa: LSU’s left guard and right tackle.
That is where my confidence comes with a warning label.
LSU has enough offense to beat Alabama. Lane Kiffin has to decide how much of it he can send into pass routes while keeping Leavitt protected.
We spent Tuesday’s Tiger Rag Radio testing those matchups with Jacques Doucet, Mark Heim and Charles Hanagriff.
They did not all arrive at the same prediction.
But the discussion kept returning to the same practical questions: Which quarterback can find his favorable matchup, and which defense can take it away?
Pressure Russell without setting him free
Start with where LSU can get to Russell.
LSU edge rushers Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen each had 29 pressures in the PFF snapshot I reviewed. Ross carried an 81.7 pass-rush grade; Umanmielen’s was 79.2. Alabama left tackle Jackson Lloyd had an 82.9 pass-blocking grade. That is a difficult assignment.
Right tackle Jayvin James, at 72.1 in pass protection, presents a more inviting opportunity. Alabama’s unsettled interior offers others.
The grades suggest Blake Baker has reason to move his rushers around and make Alabama protect its more vulnerable positions. In other words, the numbers show Baker where he ought to go hunting.
They do not guarantee he will find anything.
These are my matchup conclusions, not PFF predictions. Rushers change sides, fronts shift, and help changes an assignment. A grade sheet is a map, not a prophecy. A difference between two numbers does not translate into a sack forecast.
Russell makes that distinction especially important because he can turn a successful pass rush into a defensive mistake.
His 78.8 rushing grade is a reminder that beating the tackle can be the beginning of the problem if the defender leaves an escape lane behind him. Russell is most dangerous when the play appears to be over.
Hanagriff identified LSU’s ability to pressure mobile quarterbacks without breaking contain as a major improvement, crediting Umanmielen and Ross.
Doucet made a similar point about LSU’s discipline against Auburn’s Byrum Brown.
Kiffin has emphasized staying in rush lanes, disrupting Russell’s rhythm and letting the crowd help the defense. The sack LSU almost gets cannot become the first down Alabama needs.
That may be the most important sentence in this column.
Heim, of WNSP radio in Mobile, described Russell as a gifted young quarterback whose attempts to salvage plays can create turnovers. Sometimes the spectacular escape merely postpones the bad decision.
“When he is good, he is tremendous,” Heim said. “But he is so very young and tends to make mistakes and has to remind himself every once in a while to throw the ball away.”
The open date could change Alabama
I am not assuming LSU gets the same Alabama offense that struggled to run in its previous two games.
Open dates can make injury reports read like wish lists. Both teams had one, and both had players who needed it.
Alabama averaged 182 rushing yards per game before starting center Racin Delgatty went out, according to the comparison discussed on the show. Without him, Alabama managed 54 against Tennessee and 68 against Texas A&M.
Heim emphasized the resulting shuffle along the line, not simply the loss of one blocker. Delgatty’s possible return matters even though his individual PFF pass-blocking grade, 62.8, does not make him an unbeatable protector.
A center does not have to be an All-American to make everybody around him more comfortable. Restoring Delgatty can return other linemen to their usual jobs. Continuity can improve the whole unit.
The same caution applies to possible returns by Ryan Coleman-Williams, Zabien Brown, Terrance Green and EJ Crowell.
Progress toward a return is not confirmation of availability. “Trending in the right direction” remains one of football’s most accommodating phrases.
But a healthier Alabama would have more receiving options, coverage depth, defensive-line help and running-back rotation. LSU should prepare for that version, not the one it would prefer to see.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s message about the Alabama ground game was straightforward.
“Don’t pass on the four-yard run against a defense like this,” Grubb said in comments we played. “If there’s a crack there, we got to take it, we can’t be greedy.”
Those four yards matter to LSU, too.
Alabama staying ahead of the chains would reduce the number of obvious passing situations in which Baker could attack its protection. LSU’s pass-rush advantage becomes far less useful if the Tigers rarely get Alabama into passing downs.
A matchup nightmare still needs time
Leavitt’s 89.5 PFF passing grade gives LSU a strong foundation. Jackson Harris, with an 84.0 overall offensive grade, gives it a reason to challenge Alabama outside and see whether the Tide must commit safety help.
Trey’Dez Green’s return adds another problem, but calling him a matchup nightmare does not finish the analysis.
Which defender gets him?
Alabama linebacker Luke Metz had an 88.8 coverage grade in the snapshot. Caleb Woodson’s was 44.8.
That is not a small difference. It is a reason for Kiffin to study formations, motion and coverage responses rather than simply assume Green wins against whichever linebacker happens to appear near him.
“I don’t know if they have anybody back there that can match up with that size,” Heim said.
Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack outlined answers involving man coverage, zone, brackets and pressure.
“Whoever they want to feature, right, you have to find ways to be able to creatively attack them in zone and man, and pressure goes along with those things,” Wommack said.
That is the tradeoff.
Pressure could prevent a deeper route from developing. But Green can also be an immediate receiving answer when Alabama brings that pressure. Keeping him available for a quick throw may help Leavitt more than keeping him beside a tackle.
A matchup nightmare is only useful if the quarterback remains awake long enough to find him.
Alabama can play the same formation game.
Tight end Marshall Pritchett’s receiving-component grade was 82.2. LSU would much rather have him encountering TJ Dottery’s 90.6 coverage grade than Davhon Keys’ 43.4.
Neither offense gets to choose its matchup without the defense having a response. The offense moves the chess piece; the defense is still allowed a turn.
Coleman-Williams’ potential return would add another threat, but Hanagriff did not expect it to require a wholesale change in Baker’s plan.
He noted that LSU has generally played its coverage without sending DJ Pickett everywhere the opponent’s top receiver goes. Pickett’s 81.2 coverage grade is an asset; it does not mean Alabama has to spend the afternoon throwing at him.
Moore cannot block two places at once
Here is the part that keeps me from feeling comfortable with my prediction.
Weston Davis had a 62.9 pass-blocking grade. Alabama’s Devan Thompkins had a 76.4 pass-rush grade.
Left guard William Satterwhite was at 53.5 in protection, with Bo Bordelon at 28.5. Satterwhite was listed first on the depth chart; Bordelon’s number is a rotation concern, not a reason to assume he starts.
Center Braelin Moore, at 77.5 in pass protection, can help stabilize the interior.
Moore can help. He cannot clone himself, and LSU may need him in two places at once.
That prompted my question to Hanagriff: Can LSU protect long enough to use its receivers, or must it sacrifice some of those options to help the blockers?
“They don’t really do a whole lot of things that require them to get into a deep drop and, you know, hold a protection for four-plus seconds,” he said.
Doucet had already explained how an unremarkable-looking short throw can leave LSU facing second-and-two.
That is the point of using the passing game as an extension of the run. Get the ball out, let somebody gain useful yardage and avoid asking the line to survive third-and-nine.
A five-yard throw can look boring on first down and beautiful on second-and-two.
Leavitt’s improvement has involved accepting those throws. Kiffin has emphasized better decisions, checkdowns and growing familiarity with his receivers. Leavitt missed spring practice. An offense assembled around so many new players needed time together.
Hanagriff also made a useful point about injuries: Green’s absence forced Harris and Dilin Jones into larger receiving roles.
Now Green returns to an offense with more established options.
Hanagriff called Jones LSU’s most valuable player through eight games because he contributes as a runner, receiver and blocker.
“Now that they have Green back, it makes them even more difficult to defend,” Hanagriff said.
The running game is better than it looks — and less dependable than it sounds
This is where I have to argue with my own eyes a little.
My concern about LSU’s conventional running game needs a qualification. Calling the whole thing weak goes too far.
LSU averaged 192 rushing yards per game through eight games. In the research I reviewed, Punt & Rally’s Air & Ground measures put the Tigers at a 49.7 percent rushing success rate and 78.8 percent power success, both in that provider’s national top 30.
Those numbers do not describe an offense incapable of getting a first down.
SP+ reaches a similar conclusion from a wider angle. It ranks LSU fourth nationally overall, with the Tigers sixth on offense and sixth on defense. LSU also ranks ninth in points per drive on both sides of the ball, sits in the top 15 in offensive and defensive success rate and has scored at least 31 points in seven of eight games.
That is an impressive profile. It is not an explosive one.
The SP+ assessment identified big plays as LSU’s potential fatal flaw entering a stretch against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — the three best defenses remaining on the schedule. Leavitt averages 12.1 yards per completion, solid but not spectacular, while Jones averages 4.4 yards per carry with few breakaway gains.
LSU has been very good at staying on schedule. It has been less convincing when asked to change a game with one snap.
That concern coexists with uneven production by rushing scheme.
Coordinator Corner’s charted season tables showed LSU succeeding on 45.8 percent of zone runs, compared with 51.8 percent of gap runs and 54.3 percent of man runs.
Those are charted concept samples, with RPOs listed separately, rather than every official rushing attempt.
Our review of designed runs from four SEC games found three conversions in six third- or fourth-down situations requiring two yards or fewer.
Six plays are not enough to overrule the broader season numbers. They are also too memorable to ignore. They explain why LSU’s rushing statistics can look healthy while third-and-two still makes people nervous.
Hanagriff was more skeptical about powering the ball inside.
“I don’t think third-and-twos are running downs for them unless it’s with the quarterback, to be honest with you,” he said.
He applied that skepticism to Kentucky’s fourth-and-one, too.
Wanting Kiffin to go for it is not the same as knowing an interior handoff would have worked.
The question Saturday is not whether LSU can run. It is which runs LSU can block against Alabama.
Gap runs, pulling linemen, perimeter opportunities and a healthier Leavitt offer choices. LSU needs enough productive runs to make the next pass manageable.
It does not need to prove its toughness by repeatedly calling the run Alabama is best equipped to stop. That is not stubborn football. It is cooperation.
Why I am picking LSU
Heim leaned toward LSU. Doucet acknowledged LSU’s improvement but said he had picked Alabama, uncertain which version of either team would emerge after the open date.
Heim also wondered whether Kiffin’s determination to beat Alabama could become a distraction.
That is a fair question. But a coach’s press-conference demeanor cannot tell us whether his team will execute a protection call Saturday.
Hanagriff’s broader warning was worth hearing: LSU still needed major victories to establish its playoff case.
Alabama, Texas and Tennessee provide that chance.
“If you want to prove yourself to the committee, this is the schedule you want,” he said.
Kiffin has told his players to disregard the changing rankings and take care of the next game. Leavitt expressed the same view: November’s results will determine what the early ranking means.
I like LSU because its pass rush can make Russell play faster than he wants, and its receiving options can make Alabama defend more of the field than it would prefer.
That does not make the Tigers safe.
Alabama knows where to attack. It will test LSU’s left guard and right tackle, force Leavitt to throw before routes develop and wait for an edge rusher to lose contain.
I have seen enough to believe LSU can win this game. I have not seen enough to believe the Tigers can survive careless protection, wasted short-yardage plays or the almost-sack that becomes Russell’s biggest run.
LSU does not have to become a different football team Saturday.
It has to know exactly what kind of team it is — and which plays it can trust when two yards are all that matter.
Be the first to comment