Brian Kelly’s tenure at LSU has been a study in fits and starts, a coach with the pedigree to elevate a program but repeatedly tripped by execution in the clutch.
His arrival from Notre Dame in December 2021 came with grand visions of restoring SEC dominance, and early returns offered glimmers: a 10-win grind in 2022 laid groundwork, while Jayden Daniels’ Heisman-fueled 2023 season delivered another 10 victories including a ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin. Yet that year’s defense—arguably the program’s weakest ever, surrendering 30-plus points with alarming regularity—squandered a playoff berth in the four-team format.
Fast-forward to 2024’s third season: a 6-1 start after an opening loss to USC in Las Vegas, where Kelly’s podium-pounding frustration became instant meme fodder. The momentum evaporated with three consecutive defeats to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida, capping another late-season slide.
Entering Year 4 of 2025, Kelly instigated investing a staggering $18 million in what he described as his “best roster” to date—a mix of NIL incentives and high-profile transfers designed to end the cycle. Instead, Saturday’s 24-19 defeat at Ole Miss in Oxford served as a stark reminder: Talent alone doesn’t win in the SEC.
At 4-1, the Tigers remain playoff relevant, with ESPN’s FPI projecting a 55% chance at an at-large bid (down from 67% pregame). But the margin for error is thin, and the offense—flashing potential through Garrett Nussmeier’s arm before stalling under pressure—must evolve quickly or risk repeating history.
The loss in Oxford laid bare the schematic vulnerabilities.
Ole Miss, under defensive coordinator Pete Golding, rushed just three linemen while dropping eight into coverage on 68% of snaps, essentially inviting LSU to establish the run. The Tigers demurred, mustering a meager 57 yards on 22 carries (2.6 yards per attempt), with no gain exceeding 10 yards—a refusal to seize the obvious opportunity that echoed broader inconsistencies.
Nussmeier, a preseason Heisman favorite after his game-sealing throw in the 17-10 defensive battle over Clemson, managed 21-of-34 passing for 197 yards, one touchdown and an interception. His deep attempts faltered again (61.8% completion rate beyond 20 yards), a nagging torso injury no doubt a factor—but in the SEC, such ailments are no alibi. Nussmeier’s arm remains a weapon (962 yards, six touchdowns through five games), yet his lack of mobility—zero designed rushes and no scrambling threat—allowed Ole Miss to lighten the box without hesitation. Contrast that with Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, whose 71 rushing yards on 14 carries (43% of Ole Miss’ season-high 166 on the ground) controlled the tempo and sealed the outcome. Mobile quarterbacks like Chambliss add roughly 1.2 points per game in expected scoring margin, per advanced metrics, while LSU’s play-action averaged a tepid 5.2 yards per play without it.
Postgame, Lane Kiffin reportedly told Kelly, “Your team looks like an NFL squad out there”—a nod to the talent, laced with the implication that execution fell short of the billing.
The ground game exposed deeper fractures. Leading rusher Caden Durham (52 carries, 213 yards, 4.1 average) sat out with an ankle sprain sustained against Southeastern Louisiana the prior week, thrusting unproven options into the fray. Freshman Harlem Berry led with 28 yards on six carries (including a late touchdown), sophomore Ju’Juan Johnson added 12 on five, and junior Kaleb Jackson managed nine on four—marred by a critical dropped flat route that derailed a drive. Hybrid roles for slot receiver Zavion Thomas (five yards on three carries) and wideout Barion Brown (four on two) yielded little, underscoring a backfield lacking Durham’s every-down reliability. Compounding matters, slot receiver Aaron Anderson’s second-quarter exit with an injury sapped the yards-after-catch dynamism (4.8 per reception) that had eased box pressures. The slot unit limped to 50 yards on seven targets, with Nussmeier completing just 52% of short throws. The result? A vicious cycle: no rushing threat frees safeties to focus on coverage, absent YAC stifles momentum, and imbalance dooms third-down efficiency (2-of-11).
Ole Miss amassed 480 total yards; LSU scraped 254, exhausting its defense with over 50 first-half snaps.
Kelly’s assessment rang true: “We didn’t play complementary… inability to sustain.” Four years in, however, repetition breeds skepticism. The offensive line, retooled after an NFL exodus, permitted penetration on 48% of run plays, with left tackle Tyree Adams missing 22% of reach blocks and right guard Josh Thompson succeeding on just 58% of combo assignments. Second-half pressures climbed to 2.1 per snap, forcing Nussmeier into hurried decisions. The upcoming bye provides a pivot point: Restore Durham to 80% functionality for South Carolina (Oct. 11), incorporate Thomas in motion on 30% of snaps to revive YAC, and emphasize bootlegs to simulate mobility (+0.15 expected points added per rush via defensive hesitation). Elevating third-down conversions from 18% to the SEC norm of 42% would be table stakes. The prescription is clear: Commit to the run—target 150 yards per game through gap schemes for Johnson and wheel routes for Berry and Jackson, emulating Durham’s receiving prowess (78% catch rate). Absent that, the offense devolves into Nussmeier’s isolated arm, prey to every drop-eight scheme. Vanderbilt poses a trap (Oct. 18), Texas A&M a rematch vendetta (Oct. 25), and Alabama a juggernaut (Nov. 8). An 8-4 finish indicts the process; 10-2 validates adaptation.
The stakes sting sharper than in 2023, when a porous defense wasted Daniels’ brilliance and 10 wins on bowl irrelevance—everyone saw the leaks coming. This $18 million juggernaut, Kelly’s self-anointed pinnacle, crumbling under offensive malaise? That’s not misfortune; it’s mismanagement. Fans, scarred by late fades, have little patience for another. Kelly possesses the résumé and raw material (Nussmeier’s precision, Berry’s burst) to break the pattern. Year 4 demands divergence from Year 3’s denouement. The playoff rewards balance and resolve, not blueprints on paper. Deliver, or the roar in Tiger Stadium turns to reckoning.
These Tigers will only go as far as far as the offense can help the defense – but only if they run.
The hourglass runs low.
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