By KACE KIESCHNICK, Tiger Rag Staff Reporter
Paul Skenes is in the midst of the worst season of his young baseball career.
The Pirates’ ace had three of the most dominant seasons on the mound one could have going back to his 2023 season at LSU. He concluded his collegiate career with an unbelievable All-American and Pitcher of the Year campaign at 13-2 record with a miniscule 1.69 ERA and an LSU record 209 strikeouts. After being drafted No. 1 overall by Pittsburgh in 2023, he showed no signs of slowing down.
The 24-year-old began his MLB career with a National League Rookie of the Year season in 2024 and a Cy Young Award in 2025, but the 2026 season has been nowhere near the remarkable standard he set in his first two years.
Skenes has posted a 3.95 ERA through late August. That is more than the 1.96 (2024) and 1.97 (2025) marks of his first two seasons combined. In fact, there has not been a single point this year that Skenes’ season ERA has matched either of his prior two campaigns with his lowest average coming in at 1.98 after a May 12 game against the Rockies.
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He is 9-11 on 26 starts this season with a 1.14 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched), 171 strikeouts and 40 walks through 139 innings pitched. He is still above the league average of a 4.16 ERA and 1.304 WHIP, but Skenes has never been just above average. He is an anomaly.
Unfortunately, the only thing out of the ordinary about Skenes this season is his fading velocity. After averaging four-seam fastball velocities of 98.8 mph and 98.2 mph in his first two years, that number is down to 96.9 mph this season. While that first drew headlines, as velo often does, now even his control is being called into question.
Skenes gave up four walks, four hits and three earned runs in four and a third innings in his last outing against the Tigers on Wednesday. He threw 81 pitches in the 4-3 Pirates win and struck out five batters in a no decision. He has now given up four walks in three of his last four starts after not having done so once the entire season prior.
“I think there’s been a lot of good,” Skenes said after the game. “I think there’s some stuff, the walks. It’s frustrating. Nobody wants to go out there and walk anybody.”
The game against the Tigers came after a strategic, prolonged rest of seven days rest after his 65-pitch start against the Marlins on Aug. 11 for his third-lowest pitch total this season. Pittsburgh Manager Don Kelly opted to push back his scheduled start versus the Red Sox on Sunday and set an 85-pitch ceiling for Wednesday’s outing. The rest was apparently not injury related.
“Felt good,” Skenes said. “Just a little out of sync, I guess, kind of the whole outing, which probably makes sense a little bit with the longer rotation (extra rest). But nice to be back.”
The extra rest did not seem to help initially as Skenes and the Pirates still search for answers for Skenes and the team, and they will need to find them fast. As of Saturday morning, Pittsburgh’s 63-67 record puts them fourth in the National League Central and 6.5 games out of the NL Wild Card race. With 32 games left in the regular season – around six more starts for Skenes if he takes on his typical workload – opportunities are dwindling for the reigning Cy Young Award winner to return to the Skenes fans are used to seeing.
Skenes’ next scheduled start is Tuesday night at San Diego after five days rest, which is his normal grind.
“Grinding is a relative thing,” he said. “I would say that in ’24 and ’25, I grinded at times, too. So, I think it’s how you view it more than anything. I’ve been learning a lot, and I’ll continue to learn a lot. Just got to keep going.”
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