By KACE KIESCHNICK, Tiger Rag Staff Reporter
LSU’s football game at Kentucky on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN) could be affected by storms at sold-out, 61,000-seat Kroger Field in Lexington brought by Hurricane Isaias.
As of Friday afternoon, remnants of the storm were expected to arrive in Lexington on Saturday afternoon, bringing wind gusts of up to 32 mph and possibly a quarter inch of rain by kickoff, according to the National Weather Service.
Isaias is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near the Florida-Alabama state line late Friday night or early Saturday morning. By the time it makes its way up to Kentucky, it is expected to no longer be considered a hurricane or a tropical storm.
No. 10 LSU (4-1, 1-1 Southeastern Conference) is a 10.5-point favorite over No. 25 Kentucky (4-1, 2-1 SEC).
The National Weather Service reports an 88 percent chance of rain at kickoff with a 10-20 percent chance of thunder and lightning. The game would be able to go on without delay as long as there is no lightning in the area, but the forecasted chance of thunder does increase to between 30 and 50 percent during the game. Rain chances do not dip below 70 percent until 11 p.m.
The Weather Channel, however, lists only a 41 percent chance of light rain at 6 p.m. with higher likelihoods in the afternoon.
Whether or not lightning delays the game, the weather could play a major role for both teams on Kroger’s synthetic turf. With rain and surface winds of 20 mph expected at kickoff, the Tigers will need to pack their run game and rushing defense for the trip.
Fortunately for LSU, its rush defense is No. 4 in the nation with only 58.4 yards allowed a game. The offense averages 237.6 rushing yards a game, which is No. 15 in the nation. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are No. 75 in rushing defense, allowing opponents 144.2 yards per game, and No. 44 offensively, with a 187.2-yard per-game average.
The Tigers are led by running back Dilin Jones with 94 carries for 426 yards and five touchdowns this season. Behind him is quarterback Sam Leavitt’s 45 rushing attempts for 220 yards and six touchdowns. Stacy Gage and Harlem Berry have competed for the No. 2 running back spot, although Berry had it coming into the Kentucky trip. He has taken his 27 carries this season for 196 yards and a score, while Gage has 166 yards and two TDs on 21 attempts.
Kentucky relies on a three-man running back rotation that heavily features the duo of CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson. Baxter has run 68 times for 361 yards and six scores, and Patterson has gained 355 yards and scored three times with his 45 rushes. Javontae Barnes rounds out the backfield and has 20 carries for 126 yards and one touchdown this year.
Although LSU has put up more gross production, Kentucky edges out the Tigers in run game efficiency. As a team, the Wildcats average 5.17 yards an attempt while LSU averages 5.06 yards. The same can be said for the lead backs. Jones ranks fifth in the SEC in yards per game, while Baxter and Patterson rank eighth and ninth, respectively, but his 4.53-yard average is overshadowed by their 5.31-yard and 7.89-yard averages.
In slick conditions, it can be more difficult for the trenches to get a significant push in either direction. Of course, rain can also cause problems on both ends of the passing game.
Behind the defensive line, both teams’ linebacking corps have been depleted by injuries. LSU is without starter Whit Weeks and No. 4 linebacker Charles Ross, and Kentucky will be missing its third, fourth and fifth most frequently used interior linebackers – Alex Afari Jr., Tavion Wallace and Antwan Smith.
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