It is only Oct. 11, and LSU has six regular season games after tonight.
But this is it.
This is it for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s lingering abdomen strain. And this is it for LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes.
“I got his numbers today. He was throwing the ball with the kind of velocity he was last year.” … Brian Kelly on Garrett Nussmeier at radio show tonight. https://t.co/99HLtl42Ih
— Glenn Guilbeau (@SportBeatTweet) October 10, 2025
The No. 11 Tigers (4-1, 1-1 Southeastern Conference) host an average South Carolina team (3-2, 1-2 SEC) that is a 9.5-point underdog Saturday (6:45 p.m., SEC Network) at Tiger Stadium.
The weather will be perfect with true fall in the air – about 75 degrees at kickoff and getting down to the mid-60s in the fourth quarter. Can’t be better for football, especially around these parts.
LSU-South Carolina Scouting Report @racertodd https://t.co/2r2Z4f4pZG
— Glenn Guilbeau (@SportBeatTweet) October 11, 2025
Maybe the crisp air is will help Nussmeier’s crispness, which has not been there for much of his season. After an open date and some rest from throwing for his abdomen, if he is not clearly closer to what he was for most of last season when he averaged 311 yards passing a game, LSU’s hopes for the College Football Playoffs are slim.
A loss and LSU will likely be one more loss from elimination with No. 20 Vanderbilt next week, No. 5 Texas A&M at home the next week, at No. 8 Alabama on Nov. 8 after another open date and a trip to No. 6 Oklahoma looming to end the regular season on Nov. 29.
“The product we see on Saturdays – it’s terrible. It’s sometimes unwatchable.”
— Glenn Guilbeau (@SportBeatTweet) October 8, 2025
-LSU 2019 national champion nose tackle on current Tigers:https://t.co/HBALCiSZG3
But even with a win and Nussmeier sputtering along again like a 1990s LSU quarterback, it won’t look great. With a running game that could only rise to mediocrity at best and no 2024 Nussmeier, LSU’s near elite defense will likely not be able to sustain more than an 8-4 or 7-5 finish.
Now, if Nussmeier can show improvement and flashes of 2024 tonight and LSU wins, the Tigers have a chance. If Nussmeier comes out swinging and slinging, his receivers help him out, and LSU wins going away by 14 or so, look out.
LSU will likely not have its best wide receiver, Aaron Anderson (knee, elbow, hip, toe), tonight, but there are plenty other very good ones. They need to do their part.
“I can’t say I’m not a diva.”
— Glenn Guilbeau (@SportBeatTweet) October 10, 2025
-LSU WR Kyle Parker … “But I would say I would get my hands dirty if I had to.”https://t.co/ut3OTfdiKn
An impressive win with a shining, zipping and accurate Nussmeier completing a deep pass or two will give this sleep-walking team, slipping coach Brian Kelly and his questionable offensive staff a much needed shot of autumnal adrenaline.
Then you could see a win at Vanderbilt and a home win over the Aggies. Then if LSU splits at Alabama and Oklahoma while beating Arkansas and Western Kentucky at home, that’s a 10-2 season. Even a 9-3 finish with a win at Oklahoma would likely get LSU in the 12-team playoff as all three losses would likely be high quality.
LSU’s chances are there because the SEC is just not what it was pre- and early NIL and Transfer Portal. The Big Ten is just better. Face it.
There is no great SEC team. As of Saturday afternoon, only Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma were undefeated, and none of those have looked the part.
The Rebels (6-0, 4-0 SEC) struggled with mediocre Washington State on Saturday before surviving, 24-21. Or course, maybe that was a mediocre team Ole Miss beat, 24-19, in LSU two weeks ago.
The Aggies (5-0, 2-0 SEC), who host Florida (2-3, 1-1 SEC) at 6 p.m. on ESPN, have looked average at times.
Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) lost the big one again, 27-24, to Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC) on Saturday, falling to 0-for-its-last-7 against top 10 teams.
And I just don’t see Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0 SEC) continuing to win. Look for Texas (3-2, 0-1) to pull an upset today (2:30 p.m., ABC).
There are some good one-loss teams like No. 10 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC), which is at Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC) tonight (6:30 p.m., ABC) and No. 12 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC), which is hosting Arkansas (2-3, 0-1 SEC) this afternoon (3:15 p.m., SEC Network).
And Alabama has improved significantly since its disaster at Florida State to the chagrin of LSU fans and some LSU media. But again, with a Nussmeier near or at his best, LSU can beat most of those teams or have a chance to do so.
We will know so much more by late tonight.
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