By KACE KIESCHNICK, Tiger Rag Staff Reporter

No. 22 LSU (4-2, 1-2 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1 SEC)

Saturday, Oct. 17 • 11 a.m. • ESPN

Baton Rouge • Tiger Stadium (“Death Valley”)

Spread: LSU -14.5 | O/U 57.5

OVERVIEW

No. 22 LSU (4-2, 1-2 SEC) limps back to Baton Rouge after its second road defeat of the season and eight-straight away conference loss. No. 16 Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1 SEC), is coming off of its early bye week after suffering its first loss of the season to No. 6 Alabama. The open date came at a critical time for Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs, who are licking their wounds with injuries to quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell after the 56-23 thrashing at home. Mississippi State has been the surprise team of the season, starting 4-0 after being picked to finish 15th in the conference in the preseason media poll with big wins over ranked Missouri and at Minnesota. Lane Kiffin’s Tigers also took a blow to their confidence with the overtime loss to Kentucky that exposed issues with red zone efficiency, ball security, run blocking and two-minute defense. The outlook of this game hinges on Taylor’s health, but the Tigers have been a different team in Tiger Stadium than the one on the road this season. They will look to return to their dominant form as one of two teams to rank top six in the nation in both total defense and total offense (Miami).

KEY STORYLINES

Kamario Taylor Questionable

Taylor, a sophomore, has completed 102 of 154 passes for 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He was playing at a Heisman level through his first four games, but he suffered a right foot injury during Mississippi State’s win over Missouri. He played through the injury versus Alabama but was not the same, dynamic quarterback without his mobility and aggravated the injury enough to exit the game in the fourth quarter and return to the sideline in a walking boot. He was listed as questionable on the initial SEC Availability Report on Wednesday night, leaving his status for Saturday in the air. If he is unable to go, the Bulldogs will turn to either sophomore Parker “Billy” Puckett or fifth-year senior AJ Swann. Puckett was the backup for Taylor against Alabama, completing three of six passes for 26 yards, but the pair are listed as co-backups on weekly depth charts. He was an unranked high school recruit out of Jackson Prep and a scout-team QB last season. Swann has made 18 career starts with stops at Vanderbilt, LSU and Appalachian State. There will be a significant drop-off in comparison to Taylor no matter which replaces him if necessary. If Taylor is able to play, his questionable designation suggests it would likely still be through discomfort that could hinder his escapability. 

Tiger Tempo Town

Saturday’s matchup in Tiger Town features two of the fastest offenses in college football. So, call it Tempo Town. The Bulldogs are seventh in the nation in pace of play, averaging 23.2 seconds per play, and the Tigers are 17th in the country at a 24.7-second average. Mississippi State’s average time per play drops to 20.7 seconds, first in the nation, when garbage time is filtered out. Both offenses like to get into rhythm and blitz down the field, an unsurprising similarity considering Lebby was Kiffin’s Ole Miss offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021, but LSU is much more comfortable running the ball and taking up some clock if necessary. The Tigers are No. 10 in the nation in average time of possession while the Bulldogs are No. 122. Part of that disparity can be credited to the fact LSU has had four blowout wins, including a Group of Six and an FCS opponent while Mississippi State has only played one non-Power Four opponent (ULM). Despite the difference in how they may get there, the offenses rank No. 4 (LSU) and No. 11 (MSU) in FBS in yards per game. Expect both units to fly up and down the field if they are at full power.

No Fly Zone?

The Bulldogs defense is led by its secondary of cornerbacks Jett Jefferson and Kelley Jones and safeties Jardin Gilbert and Isaac Smith. Jefferson, Gilbert and Smith take the top three spots on the defense in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades this season, and Jefferson leads the SEC with 1.6 passes defended per game this season (eight total). Jones is third with 1.2 (six). One might expect with numbers like those that the Bulldogs defense be where opposing passing games go to die, but the reality is quite the opposite. Mississippi State ranks 15th in the SEC in passing defense, allowing 260 air yards per game. The numbers may be slightly skewed by its high-powered offense that has forced teams to pass the ball to keep up, but Alabama passed for 304 yards in a game that it was a wire-to-wire victor. The Bulldogs are 12th in the conference with 13 total sacks this season, so perhaps the secondary is not getting the support it needs. The LSU offense has already shown it has very little problem moving the ball through the passing game, and that could be the case again on Saturday if the coaching staff is not more concerned about getting the run game back on track after a poor showing at Kentucky.

Pass Rush Rebound

LSU is still second in the nation in sacks with 23 this season despite recording just one against Kentucky last week, its lowest mark of the season. The Bulldogs have given up 13 sacks through five games, which comes in at 12th in the SEC despite playing one less game than eight of the teams in front of them. According to PFF, most of that pressure has been given up by the tackles. Right tackle Jakheem Shumpert-Perkins and left tackle Miles McVay have each allowed three sacks this season. LSU edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen is second in the country with eight sacks. Defensive ends Jordan Ross and Dylan Carpenter have just 1.5 and one sack this year respectively. Freshman defensive tackle Deuce Geralds can also supply pressure from the interior. He is tied for eighth in the country with five sacks this year. A consistent pass rush could have a big effect on an injured Kamario Taylor or a sophomore backup quarterback in his first career start.

BULLDOGS TO WATCH

Wide Receiver Anthony Evans III: Senior leads SEC and No. 7 in FBS with 114.8 receiving yards per game, 40 catches for 574 yards and five touchdowns this year

Cornberback Jett Jefferson: Redshirt junior that leads the SEC in passes defended and has allowed a 48.4% catch percentage when targeted, according to PFF.

Defensive Tackle Will Whitson: 27-year-old graduate student tied for team-high two sacks, leads team with nine hurries and 13 total pressures, according to PFF

Linbacker Tyler Lockhart: Sophomore leads team with 31 tackles, has two sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss

KEY MATCHUPS

Wide Receiver Anthony Evans vs. Everybody

With the injuries Mississippi State has suffered, there is a chance Evans is the only true star the Bulldogs will have on the field on Saturday. He is already a focal point of the offense, leading the team with 40 receptions. The next three Bulldogs have 16, 13 and 11 catches. He lines up in the slot on pass plays 86.2% of the time. Since Dashwan Spears went down, Ty Benefield and Tamarcus Cooley have taken most of the slot coverage snaps. The linebackers occasionally fill that role as well, and with a threat like Evans on the field, the defense will ensure corners DJ Pickett and PJ Woodland will get their share of matchups as well. Lebby has had two weeks to game plan for Blake Baker’s defense, and he will make getting the ball to his best player a priority.

Wide Receivers Winston Watkins Jr. vs. Cornberbacks Marcus Williams & Dre Riley

Watkins leads the Tigers with 29 catches for 416 yards this season. While he is not nearly as featured in the LSU offense as Evans is in Mississippi State’s, he too is a target the LSU staff likes to find mismatches in the slot with. Williams and Riley handle the majority of those defensive responsibilities for the Bulldogs, although Lockhart plays a big role there as well. All three of them have been burned at times this season. Lockhart has allowed a team-high 183 yards and 20 catches on 21 targets as the primary defender. Riley has been targeted 12 times and allowed seven receptions for 101 yards, and Williams has given up 10 catches for 79 yards on 14 targets.

STATS AND TRENDS TO KNOW

LSU has played Mississippi State more than any other team and leads the all-time series 78-36-3.

This is only the fourth meeting between the schools where both teams are ranked and the first time the Bulldogs hold the higher ranking. It is the ninth game Mississippi State is ranked higher than LSU including games the Tigers were unranked.

Lane Kiffin is 6-1 versus the Bulldogs. The loss came in a 24-22 Egg Bowl matchup at Ole Miss.

Kamario Taylor’s 17 touchdown passes are more than any Mississippi state quarterback has had in a season since Will Rogers in 2022 (35). Rogers had 19 touchdown passes through the first five games.

THE OUTLOOK

With a healthy Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State has one of the most explosive offenses in college football, scoring 39 points per game. Taylor is an electric playmaker with his legs, improvising and extending plays in the backfield and threatening defenses as a runner. If he is as limited as he was against Alabama or unable to play, then the Bulldogs could be in store for an unpleasant morning versus a Blake Baker defense with something to prove. The LSU offense will show up either way. The Tigers average 42 points and 524.8 yards a game, and the Mississippi State defense gives up an average of 379.6 yards and 28 points per game. The Tigers will need to finish drives and take care of the football to outpace the Bulldogs offense at full power, something they could not do in Kentucky.