THE BREAKDOWN - LSU vs. Florida

Looking inside the unit-by-unit comaprisons in the LSU-Florida game

by Matt Deville
Tiger Rag Senior Editor

(At left) Jarrett Lee will be making his first SEC road start (Photo by Amanda Rothrock)

LSU is looking to tackle the second biggest obstacle of the 2008 season.

Since the league split into two divisions in 1992, the dreaded even-numbered year brings with it the tougher road schedule, which understands why LSU won both of its BCS National Titles in odd numbered season (2003 & 2007).

The even-numbered year always means the Tigers play on the road at Auburn, Florida and Arkansas. Historically, the results have not been on LSU’s side.

Since the year 2000, LSU has never beaten all three on the road in the same season. The closest the Tigers have come to accomplishing this feat was the 2004 season when LSU beat Florida and Arkansas, but lost at Auburn.

In 2000, LSU lost to all three road opponents. Two years later, the Tigers beat Florida in Gainesville, but dropped road dates at Auburn and Arkansas. The 2004 road schedule was tainted with a one-point loss at Auburn (10-9) and a humilating blowout at Georgia.

In 2006, the Tigers faced arguably the most difficult road schedule in the program’s history facing four top 10 teams, three of which were ranked in the top five. LSU pulled off an impressive split first losing at No. 3 Auburn 7-3 and then dropping a 23-10 decision at 5th-ranked Florida three weeks later.

LSU did rebound to win games at No. 8 Tennessee 24-21 and against No. 5 Arkansas 31-26 in Little Rock.

This year, the Tigers (4-0, 2-0 SEC) are off to a good start having topped No. 8 Auburn 26-21 on ZSept. 20. Now, act two of the “even-numbered” horror show continues when LSU faces No. 12 Florida (4-1, 2-1) in Gainesville on Saturday.

LSU has faced Auburn only 42 times and Florida 46 and the Tigers rarely played both teams on the road in same season before the conference was dividied in East and West. But to do, the Tigers have never beaten Auburn and Florida on the road in the same season.

Is this the year that changes?

Now for the breakdown…

LSU rushing offense vs. Florida rushing defense
This is where the game could be won or lost for LSU. The Tigers boast the second-leading rushing attack in the SEC averaging 206 yards per game. Ranked 24th nationally, the Tigers trail only Alabama (226 ypg) in this category. LSU has arguably the best offensive line in the conference, maybe in the nation, as well as the SEC’s best running back in Charles Scott. Scott is seventh nationally averaging 133 yards per game, and an amazing 7.5 yards each carry. The Gators are allowing 99 yards per game on the ground and surrendered their first 100-yard rusher last weekend when Arkansas’ Michael Smith ran 21 times for 133 yards and a score.
Advantage: LSU

LSU passing offense vs. Florida passing defense
A year ago, the true Achilles Heel for the Florida team was its poor pass defense. The Gators, which started several freshmen in the defensive backfield, ranked 98th in the nation last season giving up 265 yards per game. The Florida secondary has improved dramatically from a year ago and is surrendering 100 yards per game less than a season ago. The Gators allow 165 yards through the air per game, which is 18th in the country. However, Arkansas’ Casey Dick did throw for 220 yards last weekend in Florida’s 38-7 win. For LSU, Jarrett Lee makes his first start on the road, but he now has SEC road game experience after his second half heroics at Auburn. Look for the Tigers to try and run the ball more to take pressure off Lee. Also, expect Andrew Hatch to get into the game for a change of pace with designed running plays.
Advantage: Even

Florida rushing offense vs. LSU rushing defense
Urban Meyer is still looking for a full-time running back in the Florida offensive backfield. Last season, the Gators relied heavily on Tim Tebow to carry the load both throwing and running the ball. The plan this season was to take the pressure off the Heisman Trophy winner and spread the ball around to many different running backs. Chris Rainey (44 yards per game) is the team’s leading rusher and Percy Harvin has gotten his chances along with Jeffrey Demps, but the Florida ground game is averaging just 178 yards per game and hasn’t looked even that good. LSU is eighth in the nation against the run (69 yards per game) and was dominant in rushing defense in its two SEC victories.
Advantage: LSU

Florida passing offense vs. LSU passing defense
Something’s just not right, and you can feel it. Teams like Auburn and Miss. State, with all of their offensive deficiencies, shouldn’t be breaking big plays in the passing game. But that has been the case in each of the last two games. LSU had issues with Auburn and Appalachian State’s spread offense – and Florida runs one of the best spread attacks in the nation. The Tigers had better shore up issues with mismatches in nickel and dime packages and try different personnel or Tebow will have a field day.
Advantage: Florida

LSU special teams vs. Florida special teams
Percy Harvin is one of the most electrifying players in all of college football and is a threat to return a kick for a touchdown anytime he gets his hands on the ball. However, Harvin is questionable for Saturday’s game with a bum ankle. Florida punter Chas Henry (45 yards per punt) is ranked sixth in the nation in punting and kicker Jonathan Philips has made all six field goal attempts this season. The one glaring blight on Florida’s special teams resume is Phillips blocked extra point, which cost them the game versus Ole Miss. LSU’s Colt David is one of the most reliable kickers in the nation. After a shaky start, Brady Dalfrey has punted the ball as well as anyone in the nation the last two games. Punt returns are still a shaky situation with Trindon Holliday still not automatic. But LSU has enjoyed great field position on kickoff returns up to this point.
Advantage: Even

Coaching
This game features each of the last two coaches to win the BCS Title. Both Urban Meyer and Les Miles are among the countries highest paid coaches, each has BCS hardware, are considered among the nation’s best recruiters, but Miles has the slight edge having beat Meyer two out of three times. Meyer is known for his patented spread option attack. Miles’ big game experience and lay it all on the line mentality provides a sharp contrast to Meyer’s more stoic nature.
Advantage: Even

Intangibles
The Tigers have won lots of big games on the road, including a 26-21 decision at Auburn three weekends ago. However, the last time LSU ventured into The Swamp, the Tigers were plagued with mental mistakes and special teams gaffes and Miles’ team was defeated 23-10. Can Jarrett Lee come up big again on the road? It definitely could be the difference in the game. Also, remember the Tigers have never beaten Auburn and Florida on the road in the same season.
Advantage: Florida

PREDICTION
At the beginning of the season, and heck, even two weeks ago, it was pretty much general consensus LSU would lose this game. Florida looked to be a better team overall than the Tigers, especially playing the game at Florida Field. But the Gators’ 31-30 loss to Ole Miss exposed some weaknesses and Florida hasn’t been nearly as sharp as expected offensively. While better, the Gator defense has some holes in it as well. A few things to note: the Tigers need to execute on special teams giving away no turnovers, the offense cannot rely solely on the arm of Jarrett Lee to win the game and the secondary must cut down on busted coverages. The biggest stat in this game is LSU’s rushing yardage. Under Miles, when the Tigers rush for 100 yards or more, LSU is 35-2. This season, the Gators are giving up 99.8 yards per game. If the Tigers can reach the 100-yard mark on the ground, their chances improve greatly and Miles likely picks up his first win in The Swamp.

LSU 23, Florida 21