Drive to March

Powerful Big East, Kentucky ahead of the rest

Come tourney time, the Cats will go as far as DeMarcus Cousins, foreground, and John Wall, background, take them. (Photo by Maggie Bowles)

By BEN LOVE
Tiger Rag Acting Editor

Let the madness begin!

March is back, which means one thing for basketball fans nationwide: Time to sharpen the pencils and fill out your brackets. And with conference tourneys already underway, it’s time to separate pretenders from contenders prior to the field’s formal announcement on Selection Sunday.

Before you dive headfirst into the bracketology pool, let Tiger Rag be your guide for the road to Indianapolis. We’ve got you covered with conference-by-conference outlooks as well as our picks for favorites, sleepers and early exits.

Conferences

ACC

This league sure does take on a different look when UNC is irrelevant. In fact, from top to bottom, 2010 is not a year to be remembered fondly on the Atlantic Coast. Aside from the defending champ Tar Heels, other perennial contenders like N.C. State and Boston College have also fallen off the tourney map. The shining ray of hope is Duke, a shaky proposition based on the Blue Devils’ performance in Big Dances of recent vintage. Despite owning the most wins (21) of all the bubble teams, Virginia Tech may have the hardest time getting in due to a putrid ranking of 159 in strength of schedule.
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland
Bubble boys: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State

Big East

In the Big East, it’s basketball domination as usual. The 16-team hoops juggernaut (gotta sacrifice football prowess for something, right?) is taking aim at double-digit entrants into the tournament. While they likely will fall short, the Big East is all but guaranteed eight slots. On top of the five locks (Syracuse and Villanova could both be No. 1 seeds, to boot), expect the Huskies and Cardinals to get the nod based on brand-name coaches and solid ends to the season. Marquette should also be dancing while Cincy, Notre Dame (and some say Seton Hall) have work to do. At least one will force its way in with a decent showing in the conference tourney.
Locks: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
Bubble boys: Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Big 10

Purdue has been a consistent top-10 team this season and is even in contention for a No. 1 seed. Too bad star Robbie Hummel is out for the year, putting a huge dent in their title hopes. National runner-up from 2009, Michigan State, is also back along with the fighting Evan Turners (Ohio State) and some plucky Badgers from Wisconsin. Keep an eye on Tubby Smith’s Gophers in the conference tourney.
Locks: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Bubble boys: Illinois, Minnesota

Big 12

This is the country’s second-best league in ‘10, boasting two top-flight teams apiece from the states of Kansas and Texas. Given my druthers, I’ll ditch the Lone Star duo for the two Kansas squads. Frank Martin has done great things in Manhattan (the Little Apple) sans names like Michael Beasley and Cartier Martin. Baylor and Mizzou - who’s more on the “in” side of the bubble - will be difficult outs come mid-to-late March.
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor
Bubble boys: Missouri, Oklahoma State

PAC 10

Yikes. The Left Coast is off its game this season. Seriously, the SEC is mailing flowers and chocolate to thank you for being one of the few leagues to make it look good by comparison. Gone are the USC’s, Oregons and Arizonas. In are the … well, nobody really. At least one team will go dancing, but an at-large bid seems unlikely.
Locks: (silence … crickets … more silence)
Bubble boys: California, Washington

SEC

The 2009 postseason was a disappointing one for the SEC, with dancing shoes issued to only three conference teams (LSU, Mississippi State and Tennessee). None advanced to the Sweet 16. This season, things are looking up … if only slightly. The league will likely send four or five teams to the tourney. This last weekend saw good and bad for the SEC’s upper echelon. The good? The Vols handed Kentucky season loss No. 2 in Knoxville. The bad? Florida dropped a valuable game to Georgia in Athens.
Locks: Kentucky (mortal lock for a No. 1 seed), Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Bubble boys: Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

Others

Gotta start with Butler and BYU. The former, who went a perfect 18-0 this season in the Horizon League, was a tough out for LSU in last year’s first round. They return a solid nucleus again in ‘10. BYU, seemingly the state’s new top dog with Utah falling off, is second in the Mountain West conference to New Mexico. Speaking of the Lobos, their recent two-point win against BYU in Provo will vault them ahead of the Cougars in next week’s standing … and in tourney seeding. Other Big Dance crashers include Gonzaga, Temple, Northern Iowa, Richmond and Xavier. Still hanging on by a thread: UTEP, UAB, Utah State, Cornell and Old Dominion. Each of these teams can take heart in the fact that this is one of the weaker at-large years in some time.

FAVORITES

Ben Love: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, West Virginia

Bryan Raker (End of the Bench): Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Michigan State

SLEEPERS

Love: Kansas State, Richmond

Raker: Ohio State, Vanderbilt

OUT EARLY

Love: Tennessee, Butler

Raker: The whole PAC 10

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Ben Love is the lead basketball reporter for Tiger Rag. Reach him at ben@tigerrag.com.